With lake levels at 22.5 percent, and an annual rainfall deficit of about 4", Texoma is desperate for good news when it comes to rainfall.
That news arrived yesterday, when NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released its new three month precipitation probability, which calls for above average rainfall for the Southern United States.
Dan Collins, a meteorologist at the CPC, says that recent warming in the Central Tropical Pacific Ocean may have signaled a turning point for El Niño.
"Just this last week the temperatures in the Central Tropical Pacific crossed the threshold that we normally use to establish El Niño," Collins said.
Collins hesitates to actually say we're experiencing El Niño conditions because these above average temperatures have to persist for about a month's time. But, it definitely is a good sign for Texomans looking forward to a rainy autumn.
When it comes to seasonal prediction, however, there are a bunch of imitations out there. Recently, many people have been duped with bogus online forecasts talking about winter's doom. Texoma resident Judy Lindsey has some wise words on the matter.
"I don't think people should rely solely on the internet, you need to look at the resource it came from, the website, and make sure your information is correct," she said.
Most recently, a post said that this winter will be "life threatening," and said that "the National Weather Service models are predicting a 99% chance that this coming winter will be harsher than any we have ever seen."
This is completely false.
"We're not ever going to put 99 percent probability behind a forecast or a winter outlook so far in advance," Collins said.